Exporters, facing slump in demand in the major markets of the US and EU, are expecting incentives in the foreign trade policy, to be unveiled in the second half of the month. The FTP broadly spells out the segments of priority in external trade and also gives incentives and disincentives, depending on the country's needs.
'Every decision India makes along the LoC, it must also consider implications along the LAC.'
With Donald Trump all set to become US president, Indian exporters may face high customs duties for goods like automobiles, textiles and pharmaceuticals if the new US administration decides to pursue the 'America First' agenda, opined trade experts. Experts also said that Trump could also tighten H-1B visa rules, impacting costs and growth for Indian IT firms. Over 80 per cent of India's IT export earnings come from the US, making it vulnerable to changes in visa policies.
Tharoor said that though India's case might not be at the top of the agenda for the US media, India can get its message across easily.
Trading sentiment in the equity market this week will be guided by global trends, foreign fund movement, macroeconomic data announcements and RBI's interest rate decision, analysts said. The monthly auto sales data announcement would also be tracked by investors this week.
'The bull market cycle ran for five years. It's the end of that cycle.' 'The next cycle is a down cycle, and in that down cycle, you will see the Sensex falling from their highs of around 68,000 to maybe 40,000-50,000 at the bottom of the cycle.'
India's exports need free trade and reform. The government, however, is extending failed schemes.
RBI's interest rate decision, quarterly earnings and global cues would be the major driving factors for equity markets this week, analysts said adding that the impact of the Union Budget could linger on this week. Trading activity of foreign investors will also be a key driver for the markets, experts noted. "US and India's manufacturing PMI for January to be released on Monday, will be the key macro data to watch out for.
The Budget should undertake further reductions in import tariffs and seriously consider an announcement of India's intention to join one or both of the two Asian mega-regional free trade agreements, suggests Shankar Acharya, former chief economic adviser to the Government of India.
Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty pared early gains to settle lower on Wednesday due to late selling in index major Reliance Industries, ITC and HDFC Bank even as the RBI took the first step towards a rate cut in its monetary policy review. Erasing its early gains, the 30-share BSE Sensex fell 167.71 points or 0.21 per cent to close at 81,467.1. During the day, it surged 684.4 points or 0.83 per cent to hit an intra-day high of 82,319.21.
'While the current pause offers temporary reprieve and alleviates any immediate legal pressure, the long-term implications remain uncertain.'
Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, NTPC, State Bank of India, Power Grid, HDFC Bank, Tech Mahindra and Asian Paints were the other gainers. However, Zomato, Adani Ports, Tata Consultancy Services, Mahindra & Mahindra, Maruti and Tata Motors were among the laggards.
Trump spoke approvingly of his recent telephone conversation with Xi Jinping. This could indicate the possibility of America and China reaching some level of tactical accommodation, which would not be good news for India, points out Ambassador Shyam Saran, a former foreign secretary.
Debroy's economic interests and research work covered numerous areas such as economic theory, income inequality, and infrastructure financing.
The government announced several incentives in the five-year Foreign Trade Policy.
'Trump has no more elections to fight and his soaring ambition, which is no secret, will be to carve out a presidential legacy that outshines by far all his mediocre predecessors.' 'Trump's turnaround on the H-1B visa debate shows that he can take tough decisions and there are no holy cows in his domain,' asserts Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Among other things, taking note of complaints against several Chinese e-commerce players such as Shein, Ali Express etc for sending shipments as 'gifts' to customers in India and avoiding duties, the government has now mandated that all e-commerce sites and apps must have a registered business entity. This will be the importer on record and subject to customs rules, report Subhayan Chakraborty, Neha Alawadhi and Karan Choudhury.
The Indian rupee is likely to depreciate further against the US dollar through the end of 2024. This is due to the continued strengthening of the greenback, combined with the weakening of the Chinese yuan, which is expected to keep pressure on the Indian currency.
'A repo cut will be very good for the market as it will mean that everything is being done to spur growth in these uncertain times.'
The boom in world trade has ensured that export has grown by over 20 per cent. Has the FTP contributed to the stellar growth in exports? T N Rajagopalan thinks it did.
The Indian government does not track the number of undocumented Indian immigrants residing in the US. Minister of State for External Affairs Kirti Vardhan Singh, in a written response to a query in the Rajya Sabha, said these immigrants have "legally exited India" but have either overstayed their visa validity, or have entered the US illegally or without valid documents. The response comes at a time when Prime Minister Narendra Modi is on a two-day visit to the US, during which he will hold a bilateral meeting with President Trump. The two leaders are likely to discuss India-US cooperation in sectors like trade, investment, energy, defense, technology and immigration.
Musk said on Friday that he believes India-US ties are "trending positive" and that he favours an enhanced trade partnership between the two nations.
In a dramatic shift in Canada's foreign policy, Prime Minister Mark Carney on Thursday declared that the long-standing economic and security relationship between Canada and the United States has ended, responding to US President Donald Trump's announcement of new auto tariffs that could severely impact Canada's economy, Politico reported.
'The strategic direction of the relationship will not be affected. But the perception has been affected.'
The initiatives announced by Commerce and Industry Minister Anand Sharma as part of the annual supplement to the Foreign Trade Policy are aimed at pushing exports which declined by 1.76 per cent to $300.6 billion during 2012-13 and pushed up the trade deficit to $190.91 billion.
India's exports during 2012-13 declined 1.76 per cent to $300.6 billion mainly on account of slowdown in the global economy, Commerce and Industry Minister Anand Sharma said.
'Of the 20 trading days of January till January 28, FIIs have been selling for 19 trading days'. 'When did FIIs withdraw money with this kind of intensity?' 'It never happened. It's the first. It did not happen even during the 2008-2009 financial crisis when Lehman went under.' 'Even then you did not have like a 19-day selling spree from the FIIs.'
What stood out in his 15-year journey as a member of the political executive at the Centre was his glowing record as India's most successful and effective finance minister. Both as prime minister and finance minister, he understood the importance of gradualism, except when the economy or the polity was in a crisis.
Withdrawing a blanket ban on overseas shipments of non-basmati white rice, the government on Saturday imposed a floor price of $490 per tonne and exempted the commodity from export duty. Exports of non-basmati white rice have been banned since July 20, 2023 to boost domestic supply. "The export policy for non-basmati white rice (semi-milled or wholly milled rice, whether or not polished or gazed) ...is amended from prohibited to free, subject to MEP (minimum export price) of $490 per tonne with immediate effect and until further orders," the directorate general of foreign trade (DGFT) said in a notification.
It would be a challenge to India's policy makers how to deal with Trump so that mutual economic growth remains sustained and mutual understanding on global issues are not hampered, observes Dr Rajaram Panda.
Conformity assessment procedures will be put in place to verify that goods and services sold on e-commerce platforms meet required standards and technical regulations, according to the draft e-commerce policy. The policy, which is under discussion, also stated that actions and things which cannot be done by the online platform entities "can also not be done" by any of its associates and related parties. Government may, from time to time, notify parties which fall in the definition of associates and related parties, it said.
After heavy selling in the past two months, foreign investors have staged a strong comeback to Indian equities with a net investment of Rs 24,454 crore in the first week of December amid stabilising global conditions and expectations of potential US Federal Reserve rate cuts. This revival follows significant outflows in the preceding months, with foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) pulling out a net Rs 21,612 crore in November and a massive Rs 94,017 crore in October - the worst monthly outflow on record.
The Central Board of Excise and Customs has put in place a comprehensive mechanism for verification and monitoring of exports made under various duty exemption or reward schemes.
The government might announce, yet another set of incentives for some export sectors in January even as it has completed a sector-wise review after the announcement of some measures under the Foreign Trade Policy (FTP) 2009-2014.
In his first meeting with Bangladesh Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday flagged concerns over the attacks on minorities, including Hindus and conveyed that any rhetoric that vitiated the environment was best avoided.
'Expect India to keep doing well irrespective of geopolitics.'
From the 30-share blue-chip pack, IndusInd Bank, NTPC, UltraTech Cement, Sun Pharma, Axis Bank, State Bank of India, Tata Steel, Power Grid, Adani Ports and Kotak Mahindra Bank were among the major laggards. Tata Consultancy Services jumped nearly 6 per cent after the IT services company reported an 11.95 per cent jump in the December quarter net profit to Rs 12,380 crore. Tech Mahindra, HCL Tech, Infosys and Bajaj Finserv were the other big gainers.
From the Sensex pack, Infosys, HCL Technologies, Infosys, NTPC, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Consultancy Services, Nestle, Tech Mahindra and Bajaj Finance were the major gainers. Power Grid, Larsen & Toubro, Maruti, Titan, HDFC Bank, Wipro, HDFC and ITC were among the laggards.
